A hundred years ago, the Archduke of Austria Franz Ferdinand, and his pregnant wife Sofia, were shot and killed by a Serbian assassin. This lone action spurred the four years of death and chaos of the First World War.
Saturday marks the anniversary of the shooting, and many are wondering if history will repeat itself.
Harlan Ullman, a military analyst and author of “A Handful of Bullets: How the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand still menaces the peace,” draws parallels between the First World War and the conflicts of the 21st century. Similar to the early 1900s, he says that the Middle East is a potential bomb seemingly poised to explode with the slightest provocation.
Political tensions throughout Europe were high on June 28, 1914. Struggling for power, countries like Germany, Russia, Britain, and France made secret agreements that forced an immediate alliance in the event of an attack on their territory. When one country was threatened, the world had to respond in kind. The result was global war.
“The irony is that the forces that grew out of World War I— globalization and the diffusion of power — have conspired today to menace the world,” Ullman told CTV’s Canada AM.
“Never in my lifetime have I seen simultaneous crisis along with inability of governments to resolve them,” Ullman said.
“There are lots of potential Archduke Ferdinand’s riding around and there are an excess of bullets that could be fired by people who are assassins.”
Ullman cited the conflicts in Iran, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, and Syria to illustrate how the actions of just one person can be enough to propel an entire population to rise up. The most distinct example is Tunisia, where a fruit vendor set himself on fire in protest against the municipal government. His act sparked a series of protests that grew into the movement known as the Arab Spring.
But Ullman says the parallels between 1914 and 2014 end there. An assassination is not likely to cause the next world war. Instead, he believes it would more likely lead to civil war restricted within a region.
Ullman says these crises can be prevented if the world is “clever enough or brave enough” to take action, and suggested that world leaders participate in a global conference to help ease the political tensions in the Middle East.
